Let us hope the NDP surges to victory finally sweeping the rotten PC dynasty into the dustbin of history. I’m still very wary though, we might need round “N” of PC guided political seppuku, as 41 years of one party rule might not be enough.
From the CBC –
Of course, this is all based on the premise that the polls are accurately gauging the state of the race in Alberta. With the 2012 debacle still in everyone’s mind, that is a risky proposition. No wonder, then, that many Albertans think the PCs will still win.
While voters will have the final word on the accuracy of the polls, there is good reason to doubt that the same phenomenon that saved Alison Redford in 2012 will work in Prentice’s favour in 2015.
Only two parties, Redford’s PCs and Danielle Smith’s Wildrose, were in the running in the last election. And with both parties being adjacent to one another on the political spectrum, a swing from Wildrose to the Tories in the final days was hardly unimaginable. The PCs may have also benefited from Liberal voters moving over to support a centrist like Redford to block a right-wing Wildrose government.
But those dynamics are no longer at play. There are now three parties in the running, and their supporters do not so easily move from one party to another. If there is a shift in the final days to block one party, it is not so clear that the move would occur all in the same direction as it did in 2012. In many parts of the province, the NDP has become a better option to block Wildrose than the PCs. Similarly, any move to block the NDP might go to Wildrose rather than the Tories.
bleatmop
Mystro
Dead Wild Roses 
8 comments
April 30, 2015 at 1:16 pm
bleatmop
I’ve got better news for you!! Check out http://www.threehundredeight.com/ today!!!! They numbers are even better!!!
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April 30, 2015 at 1:27 pm
VR Kaine
Pleasantly surprised to see the NDP has gained such ground in the polls. Does it have to do with the union vote and the large increase in blue-collar workers in Alberta? It can’t be that they’re campaigning with common-sense ideas about business and the economy, because on those fronts they’re about as useless as the Tories or Wildrose (the T’s & W’s simply replace cronyism with the NDP’s stupidity). Haha! ;)
Honestly, I wish the NDP would (could) run a strong business candidate. Not a pro-business candidate, mind you, but a strong business candidate who understands how business, the economy, and leadership actually works in a resource-based economy within an international market.
If they ran on a real campaign for small business AND the environment they’d absolutely have my vote, which would be the first time since I was 18 that I didn’t vote PC. (I think I voted for Hurtig one year, but that’s because I hated all the b.s. rhetoric of the Reform Party at that time with regards to the Referendum, and I like that he was so pro-Canada compared to the PC’s at the time.)
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April 30, 2015 at 4:10 pm
bleatmop
Funny that you are attacking the NDP on running the economy. In the history of Canada it is the NDP that has the strongest performance with the economy.
http://blogs.windsorstar.com/open-newsroom/letters/ndp-govt-has-best-fiscal-record
It seems the “pro-business” parties don’t seem to know how to balance a budget.
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April 30, 2015 at 10:35 pm
VR Kaine
Bleatmop,
Any idiot can balance a budget simply by raising taxes – that doesn’t take any political skill. Political skill would come in admitting that you’re going to raise taxes before an election and then still trying to win, which the NDP has always failed at miserably.
I was trying to pay the NDP a compliment but since we’re at it, if you buy that they’re somehow going to be “great” for business then good luck with yours. Yes they’re offering small biz tax cuts but I don’t buy it and neither does any small business I know of, either.
The right’s mostly assholes (see even the CTF ripping them apart right now) , but at least they know how to win and keep themselves in power. Once they get there, are they giving a shit about balancing a budget? Nope, they’re all about wasting and unlike the left, not taxing enough to make up for it but they still know how to win and keep winning. The NDP unfortunately only really knows how to lose because they’ve gotten so used to it. Look at them still celebrating their second place win federally, and what do winners say about 2nd place? It’s first loser. ;)
Anyways, I’m just playin’. I appreciate a balanced budget and I give credit where it’s due for that, but let’s not make it out as though it’s any sort of business savvy that allows them to do that.
The ironic thing is that I might actually vote for them this year as I mentioned. As much as I don’t like their loserism, I can’t stand for what’s being done to the environment and politically, the arrogance of the right has been far too much for far too long.
There needs to be a change, and the only way the PC/WR faction is going to get a real wake-up call with a 2×4 is if they get the shit kicked out of them at election time, so let’s hope the NDP can pretend not to be a bunch of losers long enough to make that happen. :)
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May 1, 2015 at 11:40 am
Sedate Me
The NDP….not just above 20%, but in the lead??? Wait, is this a typo? Did somebody accidentally swap the PCs & NDP logos? Was this poll taken in BC? Did somebody slip a powerful hallucinogen into my drink???
This just isn’t possible in Alberta. Alberta doesn’t change parties, The Party changes its leader. It’s hard enough to imagine the PCs losing after 41 years of monopoly power. However, the idea that they’d lose to the NDP is Louie Del Grande in Scanners territory. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_Lnz64vXB8
Even if this poll is accurate, I doubt the vote distribution will result in an NDP win. The idiotic First Past The Post system we use in this country has undeservedly victimized/rewarded plenty of parties over the years. I have NO doubt that this election will continue this tradition. Somebody is going to get wiped out and somebody might even win a majority. And the difference between the two might be as little as 5%. Hell, 3rd place might even win power!
My (outsider) prediction: Given the PC leadership turnover rate, all the troubles & infighting and a poll putting them in third…they reek of weakness. And “weakness” drives voters away like the plague. I think you just might see that once-in-a-half century change of government. That is to say, one right wing party dies and leaves Alberta in their will to the next right wing party to rule for the next 40-50 years.
I think just enough right wingers panic stricken by the thought of an NDP government will run to the Wild Rose Party. (or vice-versa depending on who is ahead in the last poll taken)
There is just NO way the NDP will win office in Alberta. Can you imagine what would happen? Albertans will take to the streets in their pickups with loaded shotguns. There will be armed revolution and total anarchy. Like Afghanistan, only with more fracking and less (drinkable) water.
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May 1, 2015 at 5:54 pm
bleatmop
“There is just NO way the NDP will win office in Alberta. Can you imagine what would happen? Albertans will take to the streets in their pickups with loaded shotguns. There will be armed revolution and total anarchy. Like Afghanistan, only with more fracking and less (drinkable) water.”
You’re an asshole.
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May 2, 2015 at 10:00 am
Sedate Me
Bleatmop,
You’re quite right. I AM a total asshole! :)
But that doesn’t make me any less correct. Sure, I was just poking the province in the ribs. Then again, show me a province where that scenario is more likely.
1) While not universal, Alberta is the home of the most conservative, reactionary, politics in Canada.
2) Alberta is the epicentre of Canada’s small, but growing, gun nut-ism.
3) There’s probably more pickup trucks in Alberta than any other province. Many of which have sat motionless beside farm sheds since the Civil Rights Era of the 1960’s.
4) Alberta has the most oil & gas extraction. As a result of both the extraction process and the climate change the product causes, the water table of this naturally drier province is lowering and getting more polluted. Only the rapidly melting glaciers is taking the edge off of this trend.
Above all, the fact most relevant to the conversation,
5) Only the oldest Albertans & its most recent arrivals have ANY familiarity with changes in government. The PCs have ruled with a (well oiled) iron fist for 41 years. Before that, Social Credit ruled for 36 years with a Bible thumping fist. And some argue that the 1971 change in government was really more “re-branding” than an actual change. Either way, that’s still 77 years of uninterrupted right wing rule!
The youngest (life long) Albertans to have ANY recollection of anything other than a right-wing monopoly on power are well into their 80’s! Only they remember the time when Alberta was run out of a UFA Co-op.
I don’t think even most Albertans (especially the newer, younger, less rural, ones) truly understand what a monumental seismic shift an NDP government would represent.That kind of change can be mind blowing. Shit can get weird in such circumstances. (See: Birthers)
Given the decades of “The West Wants In” politics that was predicated on a conspiracy of Eastern lefties stealing elections/money/etc from Albertans, there will almost certainly be a VERY strong reaction to a lefty party winning…especially with only 33% of the vote…especially if it’s a majority government. That number will assumed to be entirely made up of Eastern Lefties that have “infiltrated” Alberta over the last 10-20 years and stolen some of its prosperity and now stolen its politics.
In a way, they’d be right. I know I’d have a strong negative reaction to that 33% scenario and I’m to the left of the Alberta NDP. Don’t get me wrong. If the NDP wins, (and unicorns fly out of my butt) that could be a great thing for ALL of Canada. But it would be a travesty for democracy.
But I ain’t holding my breath…until after the NDP wins. Then I WILL hold my breath. ;)
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May 2, 2015 at 10:17 am
VR Kaine
I had dinner last night with a good friend who is an elementary teacher yet fairly right on the political spectrum. I told him, “You know what? I may just vote for ‘your guys’ this year” laughing, because he’s usually fairly strong PC.
“Not my guys this time,” he replied. “F–k Prentice that pompous a$$hole. But you? What the hell?” I told him the same thing, and from there we came up with a list of how many normally pro-PC people we know who are actually considering voting NDP this time around – just for the shakeup. (“Plus,” my friend said, “I may even get a raise for the first time in 6 years.”) Interestingly, the set-off point for both of us was Prentice saying, “A lot of Albertans have had it too easy in this province”.
There were about ten mutual and personal friends that we shared, and out of them eight were always PC. Of those, all eight have said they’re at least considering an NDP vote this time just to say f-u to the PC and Wildrose. (Full disclosure, however, we also discussed how a minority NDP government would also be the safest one). Either way, though, if two usually staunch PC voters are at the very least considering going the other way, and they know 8 others out of 10 in their normally “only PC” group of friends considering the same, what might that mean in terms of surprises at the polls come election time?
Should be fun. :)
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