April 29, 2025 — Pierre Poilievre campaigned with fire, drawing thousands to rallies, dismantling Trudeau’s legacy, and offering solutions for a Canada strained by inflation, crime, and a shrinking middle class. He should have crushed Mark Carney, the Liberals’ uninspiring banker propped up to preserve their grip on power. Yet, the Liberals clung to a minority government, and the Conservatives, despite a surge, fell just short.

What happened? Two factors: Donald Trump and a persistent gender gap.

The Trump Effect

Trump’s shadow loomed large. His threats of tariffs on Canadian goods and quips about Canada as the 51st state spooked Ontario voters, especially older boomers in auto towns. They prioritized pensions and job security over Poilievre’s vision of freedom and sovereignty. Carney, despite his globalist roots, was sold as the “steady hand” to manage Trump. Fear trumped policy, giving Carney the edge in key ridings.

The Gender Gap

Poilievre struggled with women voters, pulling only 29% support compared to Carney’s 34%, per Nanos polls. In Ontario, the gap widened to seven points. Why? A lingering distrust rooted in Poilievre’s voting record. Despite his clear campaign pledge not to restrict abortion, votes like Motion 312 (reviewing when life begins) and Bill C-233 (banning sex-selective abortion) fueled skepticism. The left framed these as “edging” toward pro-life policies, and the narrative stuck. Media and activists amplified it, drowning out Poilievre’s assurances. For many women, especially liberal-leaning ones, it was enough to vote against him.

The Conservative Surge

Despite the loss, the Conservatives gained 25 seats—a historic leap. The NDP lost 18, the Bloc Québécois dropped 9, and the Liberals scraped by with just 8 new seats. Poilievre’s campaign united the base, won independents, and restored fiscal sanity to the national conversation. But his Carleton riding loss, with 91 candidates on the ballot, reeks of sabotage. [**Clarification:  Major Sabotage was most likely not the case in Poilievre’s riding, the ‘protest’ was about electoral form, and had minimal impact.  See addendum below.]  He was campaigning nationwide, not shoring up his own seat, and it cost him.

Carney’s Play

Carney, the Liberals’ polished fix, wasn’t brought in to innovate but to shield the establishment. Trudeau, battered by Poilievre’s relentless attacks, stepped aside. Carney leveraged Trump fears and his own charisma to stabilize the Liberal brand. He’s no reformer—just a rebrand of the same scandals, taxes, and censorship.

What’s Next?

Poilievre must stay as leader. He gutted Trudeau’s credibility, broke the Liberal-NDP alliance, and delivered a historic seat gain. His Carleton loss is a setback, not a defeat. A safe riding by-election can bring him back, as it did for John A. Macdonald. The Conservatives have momentum, a sharp message, and a public tiring of Liberal promises.

The Liberals face a reckoning. Without NDP cover, scandals will resurface. The Bloc will exploit weaknesses. And with Trump’s tariffs looming, Carney’s globalist loyalties won’t save Canada’s auto sector. Voters may soon see through his polished facade.

The Conservatives must stay aggressive, hold the Liberals accountable, and prepare for the next fight. This isn’t over—it’s just the beginning.

 

**Clarification –

Claims of “sabotage” in Pierre Poilievre’s Carleton riding during the 2025 federal election, particularly regarding the 91-candidate ballot orchestrated by the Longest Ballot Committee, are inaccurate and overstate the protest’s impact. The Committee’s action, intended to highlight flaws in Canada’s electoral system, created a lengthy ballot that may have caused minor voter confusion or vote fragmentation, but it was not a deliberate attempt to target Poilievre. His loss to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy, who secured 50.6% to Poilievre’s 46.1%, was primarily driven by Fanjoy’s robust local campaign, a Liberal surge under Mark Carney’s leadership in nearby Nepean, and Poilievre’s failure to counter Carney’s anti-Trump messaging. While the protest ballot added logistical complexity, calling it sabotage misrepresents its intent and exaggerates its role in the outcome.