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For Canadians observing American politics from across the border, the U.S. conservative movement can look unusually volatile—especially after Donald Trump’s 2024 victory reinforced his influence over the Republican Party. If the Canadian Conservative Party is a “big tent,” the GOP is a sprawling, louder, and more internally divided version of the same idea. Its factions share broad goals but clash over identity, strategy, and the future of the movement.
In a recent public commentary, writer James Lindsay outlined five distinct factions competing for influence on the American right. His taxonomy is one interpretation among many, but it captures real ideological and generational tensions. For Canadians trying to understand how these divisions might shape U.S. policy, it’s a useful map.
1. Establishment Republicans: The Institutional Conservatives
These are the traditional, business-oriented conservatives—what Lindsay calls the “stodgy suit-wearing” wing. They emphasize:
• limited government
• free trade
• predictable governance
• strong national defense
For Canadians, this group resembles the Mulroney-era blue Tories: polished, institutionally minded, and cautious about populist disruption.
2. “RINO” Moderates: The Centrist Republicans
“RINO” (Republican In Name Only) is a pejorative label used by hardliners to describe moderates they see as too conciliatory or ideologically soft. Think of figures who prioritize bipartisan cooperation or resist populist rhetoric.
The Canadian parallel would be how some conservatives dismiss “Red Tories” as insufficiently committed to conservative principles. The term reflects internal policing rather than a neutral category, but it marks a real divide between ideological purists and pragmatic centrists.
3. Middle MAGA: The Populist-Pragmatic Core
Lindsay identifies Middle MAGA as the current center of gravity within the GOP. This faction emphasizes:
• patriotism
• common-sense governance
• America First policies
• civic engagement
• skepticism of foreign wars
It is largely Gen X–led and blends populist energy with practical governance. For Canadians, the closest analogue is Pierre Poilievre’s populist-but-practical conservatism: anti-elite, affordability-focused, and oriented toward achievable reforms rather than sweeping ideological overhauls.
4. The Woke Right / Post-Liberal Radicals
This faction—also described as post-liberal, paleoconservative, or national conservative—rejects classical liberalism’s emphasis on individual rights and free markets. Instead, they advocate:
• a more interventionist state
• protectionist economics
• government enforcement of cultural or religious norms
• a strong national identity
Lindsay criticizes this group for adopting tactics he associates with left-wing activism, such as purity tests and identity-based rhetoric. For Canadians, this resembles fringe nationalist or sovereigntist currents—loud, ideological, and disruptive, but not representative of mainstream conservative policy.
5. Pragmatic Neo-Establishment Republicans (e.g., DeSantis-aligned)
This faction overlaps with Middle MAGA but is distinct in its technocratic, results-oriented approach. These conservatives:
• embrace populist themes
• maintain classical liberal commitments
• prioritize policy execution and administrative competence
Lindsay uses Ron DeSantis as an example of this style: populist in tone, managerial in practice. For Canadians, this resembles the Harper-era blend of populist messaging with disciplined governance.
Where the Movement Is Heading
Lindsay predicts that the most likely future for the American right is a fusion between Middle MAGA (3) and the pragmatic neo-establishment (5). This coalition would combine populist energy with administrative competence, pulling many traditional establishment conservatives (1) along with it.
By contrast, he expects the RINO moderates (2) and the Woke Right/post-liberal radicals (4) to resist this consolidation—“kicking and screaming,” as he puts it—and potentially causing disruption from the fringes.
Why This Matters for Canada
These internal American debates have direct implications for Canadians. U.S. conservative politics influence:
• trade policy and tariffs
• energy infrastructure, including pipelines and cross-border projects
• border security and immigration coordination
• NATO and continental defense
As Trump’s second term unfolds, the balance of power among these five factions could shape everything from tariff structures to foreign aid priorities. For Canada, understanding these divisions is essential. Our closest ally and largest trading partner is navigating a period of ideological realignment—one that echoes our own debates, but on a larger, louder, and more consequential scale.
Funny not funny all at the same time.
Winter Solstice Round by Becky Reardon is a simple, uplifting choral round often performed in women’s choirs or community singing circles. It’s designed to be sung in overlapping harmonies, evoking the turning of the seasonal wheel: embracing the depth of winter darkness while affirming the promise of returning light and renewal on the longest night.
A widely circulated graph derived from the 2018 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) reveals a stark asymmetry in interracial violent crime: Black offenders were perceived by victims to commit violence against Whites at a per capita rate dramatically higher than the reverse. Adjusted for population sizes—Blacks comprising roughly 13% of the U.S. population and Whites about 60%—the offending rate shows Black-on-White violence occurring at approximately 40 times the rate of White-on-Black violence per 100,000 offenders in each group.
This raw per capita disparity explodes the “woke” narrative that portrays racial dynamics in crime as symmetric or driven primarily by White aggression toward minorities. Instead, victim reports indicate that interracial violence flows overwhelmingly in one direction, undermining claims of equivalent racial bias or systemic White-on-Black targeting in everyday criminal acts.Critics often attempt to downplay this by noting that most violent crime is intraracial and that random opportunity—Whites being far more numerous—should lead to more Black-on-White incidents even without disproportionate offending. Adjusting for the larger White victim pool reduces the ratio to around 7:1, which still represents a significant elevation beyond what pure chance would predict.
This adjusted figure accounts for contact opportunities but does not erase the evidence of disproportionate involvement; it simply contextualizes it. The NCVS, based on direct victim perceptions rather than police reports, bypasses potential biases in arrests and provides a clearer picture of actual experiences, further challenging narratives that attribute disparities solely to law enforcement racism.
Ultimately, these statistics dismantle the oversimplified “woke” framing of crime as a tool of White supremacy oppressing minorities. While socioeconomic factors, segregation, and historical inequities contribute to crime patterns, the data show no equivalence in interracial harm—Whites are disproportionately victimized in cross-racial incidents relative to their offending rates. Ignoring per capita realities or dismissing them as misleading sustains a politicized myth that distorts public understanding and policy. Honest engagement with victim-survey evidence demands rejecting narratives that equate vastly unequal patterns, focusing instead on addressing root causes without excusing directional disparities.
For context, a related BJS report comparing NCVS offender data to arrests is here: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/race-and-ethnicity-violent-crime-offenders-and-arrestees-2018 (and its PDF: https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/revcoa18.pdf).
Skate Canada’s decision to boycott national and international events in Alberta is a masterclass in self-sabotage. By refusing to host competitions in the province over the Fairness and Safety in Sport Act—which restricts female categories to biological females—Skate Canada has effectively admitted that its commitment to “inclusion” means prioritizing the feelings of transgender-identifying males over the safety, fairness, and privacy of girls and women in sport. This isn’t progressive; it’s predatory, as it signals that the organization is willing to endanger female athletes rather than enforce categories based on biological reality.
The irony is staggering: Skate Canada claims to uphold “safe and inclusive sport,” yet by punishing an entire province, it excludes thousands of Alberta skaters from convenient high-level opportunities while virtue-signaling about inclusion. Alberta’s law, in effect since September 2025, protects female competitors from inherent physical advantages retained by biological males, a concern backed by basic physiology and echoed in growing international restrictions. Instead of adapting or advocating for open/mixed categories, Skate Canada chooses exclusion in the name of inclusion—revealing a captured institution more concerned with ideological purity than the integrity of women’s figure skating.
This move should serve as a wake-up call. Taxpayer-funded organizations like Skate Canada that actively harm women’s sports by boycotting provinces protecting female athletes deserve immediate defunding and reform. If they can’t support fair competition without discriminating against biological reality, they have no business governing Canadian skating. Alberta girls deserve better than an organization that treats their safety as optional.
A recently published paper by Jonathan Cohler in the winter 2025 issue of the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons (JPANDS) argues that the global mean surface temperature (GMST)—the key metric underpinning international climate agreements like the Paris Accord—is thermodynamically and mathematically meaningless.
Cohler revives and highlights a 2007 analysis by Christopher Essex, Ross McKitrick, and Bjarne Andresen (published in the Journal of Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics), which demonstrated through physical and mathematical proofs that no single “global temperature” has physical meaning in the context of global warming. Different averaging methods applied to the same temperature data can produce arbitrarily different trends, rendering GMST an invalid intensive property (like averaging the temperature of boiling water and bathwater, or points on Mount Everest and the Sahara).The author contends that trillions in climate policy spending hinge on this “fiction,” with bodies like the International Standards Organization declining to define GMST and the IPCC offering only circular definitions.
Cohler concludes that reliance on such a metric indicates climate science has shifted toward political ends rather than physical reality.
Context and Counterpoints: The 2007 Essex et al. paper has been critiqued in mainstream climate science circles (e.g., a 2007 RealClimate response) as philosophically interesting but practically irrelevant. GMST is defended not as a strict thermodynamic temperature but as a statistical index or proxy that effectively tracks planetary heat content changes, particularly from well-mixed greenhouse gases. It correlates strongly with independent measures like ocean heat uptake (in joules) and enhances signal-to-noise ratios for detecting anthropogenic forcing.
The JPANDS, published by the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS), is known for politically conservative viewpoints and has faced criticism for promoting non-mainstream positions on topics like climate change, vaccines, and health policy. It is not indexed in major databases like PubMed and is often described as outside the scientific consensus.This paper adds to ongoing debates about climate metrics but echoes long-standing arguments that have not shifted the broader scientific agreement on warming trends and their causes.
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