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There’s a low-grade feeling in the background of a lot of conversations right now that something isn’t quite working the way it used to.

Not broken. Not collapsing. Just… off.

The rules still exist. The institutions still function. On paper, everything is in place. But the sense that things are moving in the direction they claim to be moving has started to thin, and people tend to notice that long before they can explain it.

It’s difficult to point to a single cause. That’s part of why the feeling lingers. When something breaks, you can name it. When something drifts, you feel it first and only understand it later.

That unease tends to show up when the quiet constraints that keep systems stable begin to weaken.

In law, it looks like uneven enforcement. In politics, it shows up when power stops feeling like something that will eventually change hands. More generally, it appears whenever positions begin to feel fixed rather than contingent.

Most of the time, these constraints operate in the background. They don’t need to be defended constantly because they are demonstrated often enough that people take them for granted. You see rules applied. You see consequences land. You see people leave positions they once held.

That’s usually enough.

When those patterns become less consistent, the system doesn’t collapse. It adjusts. Power becomes a little less exposed, a little more predictable, but not in a reassuring way. Access narrows, not through explicit barriers, but through familiarity and repetition.

You start to see the same outcomes, or at least the same kinds of outcomes, and they become easier to anticipate.

At first, most people adapt without thinking much about it. Systems can absorb a surprising amount of this kind of drift. But the adjustment isn’t free. It changes how people relate to the system itself.

They rely on it less. They work around it more. And eventually, they stop assuming that the rules being stated are the rules that actually matter.

That shift is quiet, but it matters.

This is not an argument that the past was fair, pure, or evenly experienced. Many people never experienced the old constraints as neutral. The point is narrower. When the public no longer believes the operative rules match the stated rules, trust begins to thin.

Analysts of collapse tend to focus on endpoints. Resource exhaustion. Rising complexity. External shock. Those accounts are valuable, and they explain why systems eventually fail.

What they describe less clearly is the phase that comes before that.

The point where the system still functions, but no longer feels like it is working as intended.

That phase is where most people live, and it is where most systems are decided.

Because once a system reaches the point where it requires constant effort to maintain the appearance of fairness, the cost of sustaining it begins to rise. Not just in money, but in attention, coordination, and trust.

More oversight gets added. More process. More intervention. Each change is meant to correct a small imbalance. Taken together, they make the system heavier and harder to move.

At some point, the question shifts. It’s no longer just whether the system is fair or efficient. It becomes whether it is worth maintaining in its current form.

That’s where drift turns into something else.

Not collapse in the dramatic sense, but simplification. People disengage. Participation drops. Compliance becomes selective. The system doesn’t explode. It contracts.

If that is the direction of travel, then the question is not how to prevent collapse entirely. No system avoids change indefinitely.

The question is how to restore the constraints that keep drift from becoming the default condition.

The answer is less dramatic than most people expect.

It doesn’t require perfect leaders, sweeping reform, or a complete redesign of institutions. It requires something more basic, and more difficult to sustain.

The system has to demonstrate, consistently and visibly, that its constraints still hold.

That demonstration has to be more than messaging.

It has to take the form of consequences that land where they should, including on allies, insiders, and institutions themselves. It means oversight with teeth, rules applied even when politically inconvenient, and positions that remain genuinely vulnerable to replacement rather than quietly secured over time.

These are not abstract principles. They are operational ones.

A system that enforces its rules selectively teaches people to look for exceptions. A system that allows power to settle teaches people that outcomes are predetermined. A system that avoids disruption teaches people that disruption is no longer possible.

Reversing that drift doesn’t happen through messaging. It happens through action, repeated often enough that people begin to believe what they are seeing again.

Trust is not restored by argument. It is restored by demonstration.

And that demonstration has to be visible enough that people can recognize it without being told what it means.

That is the path forward.

Not a guarantee of stability. Not a return to some idealized past. But a re-establishment of the conditions under which systems remain both legible and worth participating in.

Because the alternative is not immediate collapse, it is something a little more quieter and under the radar.

A system that continues to function, but no longer convinces.

 

Suggested Further Reading

If this line of thinking resonates, these works explore different parts of the same problem from complementary angles:

  • The Collapse of Complex SocietiesJoseph Tainter
    A clear account of how increasing complexity yields diminishing returns, and why systems often simplify rather than fail dramatically.
  • CollapseJared Diamond
    Examines how societies respond—successfully or not—to environmental, political, and economic pressures over time.
  • Guns, Germs, and SteelJared Diamond
    A broader look at how geography and structural conditions shape long-term societal development and stability.
  • Rivers of Gold, Rivers of BloodAnthony Quinn
    Explores how wealth, empire, and resource flows influence power, expansion, and institutional behavior.
  • Altered Carbon — created by Laeta Kalogridis (based on the novel by Richard K. Morgan)
    A speculative take on what happens when one of society’s most fundamental constraints—biological exit—is removed entirely.

 

 

There’s a popular line making the rounds:

“I’m communist with my family, socialist with my friends, liberal with my country, and capitalist with the rest of the world.”

It’s clever. It’s also half right—and half sloppy.

The part worth keeping is simple enough: scale changes the rules.

What works for five people does not scale to fifty million. Not because people become worse, but because the system itself becomes something different. A family, a circle of friends, a town, a nation—these are not just larger and smaller versions of the same thing. They are different kinds of coordination problems.

Start with the family. From a distance, it can look vaguely “communist”: shared resources, little formal accounting, distribution by need rather than contract. But that description confuses appearances for mechanism. Families do not work because they have stumbled onto a workable version of communism. They work because they are held together by thick trust, intimate knowledge, moral obligation, and affection. You know who is trying, who is struggling, who is coasting, and who is carrying more than their share. Love and duty do much of the coordinating work that, elsewhere, would have to be done by prices, rules, or enforcement.

That is not an economic system. It is a moral one.

Expand outward to friendship networks and you get something looser but still recognizably personal. Friends split restaurant bills unevenly, help each other move, pick up tabs, lend money, and trade favors without keeping a precise ledger. Reciprocity exists, but it remains informal because reputation still does the work. The group is small enough that selfishness has social consequences, and generosity has memory.

Still not socialism. Still a trust network.

Scale it again, though, and the whole structure changes. Once you move from dozens of known people to millions of strangers, the conditions that made those smaller systems work begin to disappear. You no longer know the participants. You cannot directly observe effort. Reputation becomes local rather than systemic. Free riding becomes harder to detect and easier to excuse. The moral visibility that kept the small group coherent starts to fade.

And that is before you even reach the information problem.

Mises and Hayek saw this clearly. In a large society, the knowledge needed to coordinate production, consumption, scarcity, and changing local conditions is radically dispersed. No planner can gather it all in a usable form, still less process it in real time. Prices do something extraordinary here: they compress enormous amounts of scattered information into signals people can actually act on. They tell producers where demand is rising, tell consumers where scarcity is biting, and help strangers coordinate without ever needing to know one another.

But information is only half the story. The other half is incentives, and this is where many soft-focus arguments about solidarity fall apart.

In a family, the bond is part of the reward. Parents sacrifice for children because they love them. Children often learn obligation because they are formed inside a web of expectation and attachment. Friends help each other because affection, shame, pride, and mutual memory all shape conduct. In a large anonymous system, those bonds weaken. Once effort and reward drift too far apart, behavior changes. People conserve effort, game criteria, hide costs, seek advantages, and respond to whatever incentives the system actually creates rather than to the moral language used to defend it.

That is why bloated systems so often fill up with evasion, rent-seeking, bureaucratic padding, and endless struggles over who pays, who receives, and who gets to define fairness. This is not mainly because people are unusually wicked. It is because incentives shape conduct more reliably than rhetoric does.

The problem is not that people become monsters at scale. The problem is that systems stop being personal.

At small scale, coordination is moral and relational. At large scale, it must become impersonal and systemic.

That is where markets enter—not as a sacred ideology, but as a coordination mechanism built for strangers. Prices transmit information. Profit and loss impose discipline. Competition corrects error. Contracts reduce uncertainty. None of this requires perfect virtue. That is precisely the point. Markets work not because people are angels, but because the system does not depend on them being angels.

That is why they scale.

Now, a fair steelman is necessary here, because the redistributive instinct is not born from pure foolishness. Advocates of more social-democratic or socialist arrangements are often responding to something real. Human beings are not just market actors. They are children, parents, dependents, pensioners, caregivers, and sometimes casualties of bad luck they did not choose. A society that treats every need as a private burden and every vulnerability as a market outcome to be endured will become efficient in a narrow sense, but also harsh, brittle, and politically unstable. The desire to soften outcomes, provide public goods, and preserve a baseline of dignity is not irrational. It is, in many cases, a morally serious response to genuine dependency.

That much should be conceded.

What should not be conceded is the next leap: the claim that because markets need moral and political correction, they can therefore be replaced as the primary mechanism of large-scale coordination. They cannot. A decent society may use the state to cushion, insure, stabilize, and set guardrails. But the moment it starts treating political instruction as a substitute for price signals, or good intentions as a substitute for incentive alignment, it begins to lose the information and discipline that complex systems require.

As systems scale, coordination must shift from relationships to mechanisms, and from assumed goodwill to aligned incentives.

This is also why the original slogan overshoots. Markets are not the only thing that scales. States scale too, in limited and specific ways. Law, infrastructure, policing, and certain public goods are not produced by market exchange alone. And between the family and the nation lies an entire middle world of institutions—firms, charities, churches, schools, municipalities, associations—that mix trust, hierarchy, rules, custom, and incentives in different proportions.

The real lesson, then, is not “capitalism good, everything else bad.” That is too crude to be useful.

The real lesson is that systems must be judged by the kind of coordination problem they are trying to solve. Small groups can run on trust because trust is visible and enforceable. Large societies cannot. They need mechanisms that work under conditions of anonymity, partial knowledge, conflicting interests, and imperfect virtue. Any model that ignores those conditions will eventually break, no matter how beautiful its moral language sounds at dinner.

That is the recurring mistake. People take the emotional clarity of small-group life—sharing, sacrifice, mutual care—and try to project it onto systems too large for those tools to govern. When the result disappoints, they blame greed, selfishness, or insufficient solidarity. They almost never blame the mismatch between the model and the scale.

They should.

Because the deepest constraint here is not moral. It is structural.

You can run a family on trust. You can run a country on rules. But if those rules ignore incentives, trust will not save you.

References for Curious Readers

F. A. Hayek, “The Use of Knowledge in Society” (1945).
The classic statement of the knowledge problem: why the information needed to coordinate an economy is dispersed among millions of people and cannot be fully centralized. Published in The American Economic Review.

Ludwig von Mises, “Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth” (1920).
The foundational statement of the economic calculation problem: without market prices for capital goods, rational large-scale allocation becomes impossible.

Elinor Ostrom, Nobel Prize Lecture, “Beyond Markets and States” (2009).
Useful as a corrective to simplistic binaries. Ostrom’s work shows that some common resources can be governed successfully through rules, enforcement, and local institutions rather than either pure markets or total central control.

Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences 2009 – Popular Information / Summary.
A concise overview of why Ostrom and Oliver Williamson mattered: economic life is governed not only by markets and states, but also by firms, associations, and other institutions. This supports the essay’s “missing middle layer” point.

Another common tactic of the woke activist left is to argue that concepts that seem straightforward are actually not and are “complex”. A deeper higher level of understanding is necessary to properly understand the topic – strangely enough this added complexity always points toward the ideological pre-conclusions the activist has in mind.

Let’s set the scene. An individual asks a question to clarify an elected officials understanding of biology.

The elected official responds with some unrelated word salad thinking that this red herring is somehow getting closer to the truth.  I’m not sure what field she is a scientist in, but it isn’t biology for sure.

 

Emma Hilton, an evolutionary biologist picks up the mantle and responds with the empirical facts of the matter.  She explains the obvious first and details the erroneous filler Representative Taylor offered up.  It is succinct and to the point.

The complexity angle arrives!

Drew is an idiot and a woke activist.  Please notice the framing of Drew’s assertions.  “Traditional binary view of sex”  “doesn’t acknowledge the biological complexity and diversity in sex determination”.

Good gravy!  Become extra skeptical once you see phrases and words like this – they are almost always indicative of the bullshit being spread thick and wide.  Drew also gets bonus doofus points for trying to correct an evolutionary biologist on sex differentiation.

Emma’s response.

Drew is now on the receiving end of a very impressive fuck around and find out moment, as neither his bullshit facts nor his attempts at social coercion are working.

The moral of the story is that facts not feelings should win the day – every damn time. This isn’t the case in society at large though as the activist feelings crew have made impressive strides to quell dissent and silence people speaking the truth. Be like Emma, not Drew.

Bonus bullshit round! – No scientific discussion would be ‘complete’ without some douche bringing in an irrelevant social constructionist assertion.

You can’t make this shit up folks.  :/

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